
As the nomination battle on the Republican side drags on, with no ostensible
end in sight, I can’t help but ask myself: Who is responsible for the Republican
party? What person or group is out there to make sure that the GOP does not
shoot itself in the foot before November? Who is there to guarantee that the
disputes between different factions are resolved amicably and efficiently? Who
is looking out for the long-term prospects of the Grand Old Party?
In the pre-reform era, that was a fairly easy question to answer: the state
and local party organizations were in charge. Political scientists often
conceived of the old system as a “truncated pyramid,” with the local party
organizations on the first rung, the state party organizations on the second,
and really nobody above them (the national committees were mostly just
figurehead organizations). The main vehicles for party business were the
conventions – local, state, and national. This is where the party nominated
candidates to compete for office and established the platform (once important
documents that were actually read and indicated the party’s positions on the big
issues).
The early 20th century progressives hated this
approach, and tried to foist primaries upon the parties as the way of selecting
candidates, but the fad mostly died off after the 1910s. After the debacle of
the 1968 Democratic National Convention, left-wing insurgents got hold of key
Democratic reform committees, and shoved major changes down the party's throat.
The eventual result was the primaries that we have nowadays.
This effectively destroyed the old party. In its place arose
a candidate-centered political party – if the old system was a truncated
pyramid, the new system was a series of disconnected circles, representing
individual candidates and the organizations they build up to pursue elective
office. The party organizations were no longer responsible for selecting
nominees, and the candidates (not the platforms) came to define the issues in
the campaign. Unsurprisingly, the state and local parties atrophied, and the
national convention devolved into the useless spectacle that greets us every
August in a presidential year.
So, who is responsible for the well-being of the party in
this new system? Consider the possibilities.
The people? The primary system gave the power of
nominating candidates to the people writ large, rather than party organizations.
But check out
this chart from RealClearPolitics tracking the average of the
national polls. What we see here is that a whopping five Republicans have had a
lead at one point or another. This strongly suggests a mass electorate that is
paying precious little attention – too little to be responsible for the
reputation and success of the Republican party over the long haul.
As
I have argued before, without the competition between the parties to define
the stakes of the campaign, we cannot hope for a responsible electorate. And
thus intra-party competitions such as the primaries are bound to
disappoint.
The national committee? It is a happy thought, for
sure, and the media likes to bill the national committee chairman as the leader
of the Republican party. But to be a leader, you have to have political power,
and the national chairman has very little of that. Instead, his major role is to
act as a legal money launderer to help the party’s presidential candidate get
around the campaign finance laws. As past disputes have indicated, the national
committee has, at best, only nominal control over the most trivial of matters,
like when state parties hold their primaries.
The candidates themselves? One would hope so, but
the reality is that candidates face a classic
prisoners’
dilemma. Suppose you told a candidate that, for the good of the party, he
has to drop out of the race. If he drops out, the party stands a 50 percent
chance of winning, but if he stays in the probability of success drops to 20
percent. From the perspective of the party, this is a no-brainer, but what about
the candidate? Maybe he would do the altruistic thing and withdraw, but it’s
just as likely that he would conceive (correctly) that his chances would be
better if he stayed in the race – a 20 percent chance of victory is greater than
a 0 percent chance, after all. So, party be damned.
The party establishment? Recent scholarly work has
suggested that this shadowy group has more power than originally thought, but
that is not to imply that it has a lot of power, or that it is capable of
behaving responsibly for the good of the whole party. In terms of its capacity
to be responsible, the establishment nowadays is mostly the candidates for and
occupants of various political offices, and the donors, strategists, and
hangers-on that orbit in their particular circles. Thus, it suffers from the
same potential prisoners' dilemma as declared candidates do. In terms of its
power, the establishment works almost exclusively through ad hoc,
informal channels that are nowhere near as dominant as the formal rules that
governed the almighty pre-reform conventions.
So, in their zeal to reform the party system, the lefty
do-gooders of the late 1960s and early 1970s denuded those supposedly vile party
organizations and replaced them with…nothing. In reality, nobody is
responsible for the well-being of the party, to manage its reputation and
maximize its chances for a broad victory in November and beyond.
We have seen the problems with such an arrangement in the
current cycle. The differences between candidate voting blocs are fairly
insubstantial this time around – mostly dependent on different tenors and tones
from the candidates, or regional affinities, or what have you. In the grand
history of the parties, these sorts of disagreements are par for the course, and
would usually be ironed out within 10 or so ballots at the national convention.
The local and state parties would send their representatives to Chicago (or some
other central city), they’d haggle a little bit, but come to an agreement in
short order, and probably all head home happy.
But not this time. Because there is no such
governing body, we have this mess that possibly might stretch on for months,
leave lingering bad blood between the factions, and ultimately give Barack Obama
a boost in the general election. That’s the difference between having somebody
in charge and having nobody in charge.
We implicitly take for granted the idea that the way things
are done now is either the way they have always been done, or that it was
changed from the old ways for good reasons. Perhaps it is the march of
technology or the seemingly endless growth in the American economy that gives us
confidence that today’s rules of the road are better than yesterday’s. But it is
not so in the case of the party operations. The sad truth is that Americans who
lived and died 150 years ago – who didn’t have modern medicine, personal
computers, cars, airplanes, easy access to higher education, "sophisticated"
manners and all the rest – had a much better party system than we do today.
And the Republican party is paying the price for this right
now.
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