Is Virginia Turning Blue? -- By Jonathan Tobin, Commentary Magazine

Anyone pondering the nature of the mismatch in the Virginia governor’s race need only have noted who is coming to the aid of the two candidates. Yesterday, Hillary Clinton stumped for Terry McAuliffe. Tomorrow, an even bigger name, husband Bill, will do the same. Who’s riding to the rescue of Republican Ken Cuccinelli? Rick Santorum is mobilizing a conservative “strike force” to aid a GOP candidate facing a deficit in the polls that is starting to look like it might be insurmountable. In other words McAuliffe, who leads by 17 points in the latest Rasmussen poll, may be on the verge of a decisive win that could seal Virginia’s drift from a status as a purple swing state to a blue Democratic state.

There are those who are attempting to blame Cuccinelli for this state of affairs and point out the state attorney general has suffered badly from Democratic attacks on his right-to-life positions. But this is unfair. The Cuccinelli-McAuliffe matchup at one point looked to be favorable to the Republicans. Though Democrats have piled on with every imaginable charge, Cuccinelli is actually a well-spoken conservative whose views are by no means out of step with his state. Moreover, McAuliffe remains a deeply flawed candidate whose associations with the worst elements of the Washington D.C. world of lobbyists, inside deals, and corruption should have made him vulnerable to a straight arrow like Cuccinelli (although he was tainted, if only by association, by Governor Bob McDonnell’s ethical lapses). But instead of being sunk by his record, McAuliffe is coasting to victory. The explanation for this can’t be found in an analysis of the two candidates or even their tactical campaign decisions. The swing to the left is the result of demographic changes that should have already alerted us to the fact that Virginia is now moving into the category of a fairly safe Democratic state.

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