We don't know precisely how the rest of this month will play out. But we know it will include an excruciating amount of political pain for President Obama and Congressional Democrats.
First, understand what we're talking about when we discuss the Upton bill. Erick Erickson worries that a bill offered by Representative Fred Upton (R., Mich.) represents a trap for Republicans and opponents of Obamacare. He concludes, "the Republicans should not be helping Democrats with their re-election plans, which is all [they] are doing with Upton/Landrieu."
The concern has some validity, but the Upton and Landrieu plans do a heck of a lot more than just help Democrats insist they're trying to do something to help those losing their plans.
Jeffrey Anderson:
Moreover — and important — the Upton bill
would not help fix Obamacare. To the contrary, if it were to become law,
it would badly undermine Obamacare’s exchanges, which would then be
drained of millions of (previously insured and hence generally
healthier) people whom Obama wanted to compel to buy
exchange-based plans by banning their preferred plans. In short, Upton
would hurt Obamacare, not fix it — which is why Obama opposes it.
The defenders of Obamacare know full well
that the Upton legislation represents a serious threat to the viability
of the law. It would provide a lifeline for a viable insurance market
outside of Obamacare’s rules and suffocating structure. Millions of
Americans would flock to a revitalized insurance marketplace that
offered lower premium products with better coverage. The end result
would be one more step toward fully reversing the catastrophic mistake
of Obamacare.
Put another way, if the Upton bill’s primary impact really was just to provide cover for Democrats, why would Obama and his closest allies be fighting it tooth and nail? Why are they arm-twisting their own members to not vote for something that could provide them some political cover?
House Democratic leaders are doubling down
in their opposition to GOP legislation that would allow Americans to
keep their healthcare plans, even as the party is taking a political
drubbing over the contentious issue.
With one simple bill, designed to honor a promise the president repeated for five years, Fred Upton and his allies have built a nice little Trojan horse that implodes Obamacare within a year or two.
....
The House is going to take up the Upton bill and the “Keep Your Plan” It’s going to pass. It’s going to pass with just about every Republican vote, and in all likelihood, a heck of a lot of Democratic votes.
Then it goes to the Senate, where three things can happen.
First, Harry Reid could treat it the way he treats most bills that pass the House, by refusing to bring it to the floor for a vote.
You’re already smiling, aren’t you? You’re already picturing the ad:
“A bipartisan majority of the House of Representatives passed the Keep Your Plan Bill. But Harry Reid is playing politics, not even allowing the Senate to vote on it.”
Ouch. Every Senate Democrat will be asked, on the record, if they agree with Reid’s decision. They’ll have to denounce him. The infighting and recriminations will be delicious.
The second possibility is that Harry Reid allows the bill to go to the floor, and the Senate rejects it.
Picture the ad, coming from the NRSC and various conservative groups.
“A bipartisan majority of the House of Representatives passed the Keep Your Plan Bill. But after voting for the Obamacare bill that cancelled your health insurance, [insert Democratic incumbent here] voted NO – leaving you and your family without insurance.”
Brutal, just brutal. Under that scenario, the 2014 midterms turn into a Democratic bloodbath that makes the 2010 midterms look like the good old days.
Then there’s the third possibility… the Senate passes it… and it goes before Obama.
And then Obama can either sign the metaphorical gut-shot into law, or he can veto it.
He’s not going to sign it. Instead President Obama will provide the most excruciatingly painful veto in recent memory, as he becomes the president who assured the American people dozens of times they could keep their plan, broke his promise, and then shot down the bipartisan legislation to keep his promise after he broke it. You think his approval rating is low now? He’ll make Bush’s second term look like a joyous series of unhindered triumphs.
Nobody knows what Democrats are going to do. Because they themselves don’t know what they’re going to do:
(Click link below to read more)
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