First,
there's an enthusiasm gap. Typically, but not always, Republicans vote
at higher rates than Democrats in congressional elections. And at this
early stage, that seems likely to happen again, perhaps at an even
greater rate than usual. One telling indicator came in December, when
the Pew Research Center found that Republicans are much more optimistic
about their party's electoral prospects than Democrats are. Fully 55% of
Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters expect the GOP to
do better in 2014 than the party has in recent elections, while only 43%
of Democrats expressed such confidence.
Recent national surveys of registered voters
by the Pew Research Center, the Washington Post/ABC News and the New
York Times/CBS News show congressional voting intentions about even. But
if these polls were narrowed to likely voters, they might find a strong
GOP lead. It could be a replay of 2010, when Pew's final congressional
poll of registered voters showed a one-point Democratic lead, but among
likely voters Republicans held a six-point advantage, which was about
their margin of victory when they retook the House.
Another
challenge for Democrats is winning independents, who typically decide
election outcomes. Democrats trail Republicans among independents by 38%
to 44%, according to Pew's February survey. Democrats also lost the
independent vote in the 2012 presidential election, 45% to 50%,
according to national exit polls. In other words, President
Obama
owed his re-election victory to his base. This is an important
indication of how lagging Democratic engagement could sway 2014.
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